Weather Update J&K: Light Rain Forecast on 18–19 September, Dry Spell Expected Afterwards
The Meteorological Centre, Srinagar, has issued its latest weather bulletin for Jammu and Kashmir, forecasting light to moderate rainfall activity at scattered places on 18–19 September 2025, followed by a prolonged dry spell across the Union Territory until the end of the month.
According to the forecast, residents across several districts can expect light rain or thundershowers during the night of 18th September into the early morning of 19th September. In some pockets, there may be brief moderate showers, but the overall intensity of the system is not expected to be significant. After this short-lived activity, the weather is likely to improve steadily, bringing mainly dry and stable conditions from 20 September onwards up to 28 September 2025.
The department has further assured that no major weather disturbances are expected until the end of September, which comes as a relief for both farmers and travelers after a season marked by frequent rain spells.
Key Highlights of the Forecast
- 18–19 September: A spell of light rain/thundershowers at scattered places, with brief moderate showers in some areas, especially during the late night and early morning hours.
- 20–28 September: Dry and clear weather is expected across most of Jammu and Kashmir.
- Overall Outlook: Nothing significant is forecast until 28 September, meaning that residents can expect relatively stable conditions.
Advisory Issued by the Meteorological Centre
Alongside the forecast, the Meteorological Centre Srinagar has issued an advisory for the public and farmers to ensure safety and make the best use of the upcoming dry weather.
- Travel Advisory:
- There remains a possibility of landslides and shooting stones at vulnerable stretches along major highways and hilly roads, particularly during the spell of rainfall on 18–19 September.
- Commuters traveling along the Jammu–Srinagar National Highway, Mughal Road, and other mountainous routes have been urged to remain cautious.
- Travelers are advised to check the latest road status from traffic authorities before starting their journey.
- Agricultural Advisory:
- Farmers have been advised to continue with harvesting operations of paddy and other crops during the upcoming dry spell from 20–28 September.
- The stable weather will provide an ideal opportunity to carry out threshing, drying, and storage of harvested grains.
- Vegetable growers and orchardists can also take advantage of the clear conditions to prepare fields, manage irrigation, and protect fruits from fungal infections which are often triggered by excessive rains.
Significance of the Forecast
The announcement of a prolonged dry spell after mid-September is particularly significant for the Union Territory for several reasons:
1. Relief for Farmers
September is a crucial month for the harvesting of paddy, which is a staple crop in Kashmir. Uninterrupted dry weather is essential for reaping, threshing, and drying paddy in open fields. Frequent rains during this time often delay harvesting, affect grain quality, and cause losses to farmers. With this forecast, agricultural activities are expected to progress smoothly.
Additionally, farmers cultivating maize, vegetables, and seasonal fruits will also benefit from the dry conditions. Orchardists engaged in the picking of apples, walnuts, and pears have been assured of better conditions for storage and transportation.
2. Tourism and Travel Stability
The dry weather outlook is good news for the tourism sector as well. Jammu and Kashmir continues to witness steady tourist inflows in September due to its pleasant autumn climate. A prolonged dry spell ensures uninterrupted sightseeing, trekking, and pilgrimage-related activities, which often face disruptions during unexpected showers or landslides.
Moreover, smoother road connectivity on highways such as the Jammu–Srinagar NH-44 and Mughal Road is critical for the movement of both tourists and essential supplies.
3. Safety Considerations
While the forecast mentions only light to moderate rain, the advisory regarding landslides and shooting stones remains vital. Even short bursts of rain in hilly terrain can destabilize slopes, leading to accidents or road blockages. Residents in vulnerable districts like Ramban, Udhampur, Poonch, Doda, and Kishtwar are especially advised to remain alert.
Regional Outlook
Kashmir Valley
- Light rainfall and thundershowers are expected in districts like Srinagar, Anantnag, Baramulla, Pulwama, and Kupwara during the night of 18th and early morning of 19th.
- From 20 September onwards, weather conditions are likely to remain mostly clear, supporting agricultural operations and daily life.
Jammu Division
- The plains of Jammu, Samba, and Kathua may witness light rain during the forecast period, though intensity will remain low.
- Hilly districts such as Ramban, Doda, and Kishtwar are more prone to landslides and shooting stones due to terrain sensitivity. Travelers should be cautious during this period.
Ladakh Region
- Ladakh is likely to remain mainly dry throughout the forecast period. However, isolated cloud development cannot be ruled out.
Impact on Daily Life
- Educational Institutions: Schools and colleges can function smoothly without weather-related disruptions during the long dry spell.
- Healthcare and Safety: The clear weather reduces risks of seasonal diseases like water-borne infections, which often surge during prolonged wet conditions.
- Markets and Economy: Stable weather helps in smooth transportation of fruits, vegetables, and essential commodities, ensuring market stability.
Expert Commentary
A senior official from the Meteorological Centre Srinagar emphasized that while the rainfall on 18–19 September will be short-lived and not heavy, the advisory regarding landslides should not be ignored. “Even light showers in hilly terrain can destabilize soil and rocks, so people living near vulnerable areas should remain vigilant,” he said.
On the agricultural side, experts have welcomed the long dry spell. An agricultural scientist from SKUAST-K remarked, “The timing of this dry spell is crucial. Farmers can complete harvesting of paddy without the fear of unexpected rainfall damaging crops. It is also an opportunity for orchardists to safely transport their apple produce to markets.”
Conclusion
In summary, the weather update for Jammu and Kashmir indicates:
- Brief light to moderate rainfall during the night of 18th and early morning of 19th September.
- Improvement in weather conditions from 20th September, leading to a prolonged dry spell lasting until the 28th.
- Advisories for travelers and farmers remain in place, with caution advised at vulnerable hilly stretches and encouragement for uninterrupted farm operations.
For the people of Jammu and Kashmir, this comes as a welcome relief. Farmers can breathe easy, travelers can plan their journeys more confidently, and the tourism industry can look forward to stable conditions during this period.
With the arrival of autumn, Kashmir will soon witness its breathtaking transformation of chinar leaves turning golden and crimson — made even more enjoyable under a clear sky and stable weather.
