A strong Western Disturbance is going to impact J&K during the next 36 Hours.The peak impact of this Western Disturbance is expected until tomorrow late afternoon or evening.Most places of J&K will record moderate to heavy precipitation.The higher reaches will experience fresh moderate to heavy snowfall, with snowfall accumulation ranging from 6-8 inches to 2.5-3 feet.Sadhna Top, Sinthan Top, Razdan Top, Zojila Pass, Mughal Road, Peer Ki Gali and adjoining places can expect snowfall and subsequently road closures.The Western Disturbance is embedded with a cold front, it’s likely to influence the freezing level and make it drop to some extent.The snowline is expected to drop to around 2000-2100 meters, there is a good possibility of light to moderate snowfall on the middle reaches, a couple of inches of snowfall accumulation is possible (Note : it’s not necessary that every place at 2000-2100 meters or lower would experience snowfall, this is the lowest estimated snowline associated with this Western Disturbance.There is also a risk of snowfall in Shopian (35-40% chance) considering the amount of rainfall which is forecasted, resulting in evaporative cooling along with the support of a cold front.Light to moderate rainfall is expected in plains, the possibility of heavy rainfall remains elevated in many plains.There will be a significant improvement in weather from tomorrow evening or late night.An overall improvement in weather is unlikely as the risk of precipitation would remain elevated on 5th and 6th April as well, although the weather for the majority of the time is expected to remain dry.There can be a spell in multiple places on these days.Another strong Western Disturbance will impact J&K from 7th April.
Note
1) There is a risk of thunderstorms, lightning, hailstorms and gusty winds.Windstorms cannot be ruled out in some places.
2) Due to erratic weather, apple orchards or blossoms can be damaged.
3) There is going to be a significant drop in temperatures.
4) Prolonged episodes of precipitation cannot be ruled out.
Advisories
1) People are advised to not to travel to the higher reaches, as the risk of road closures remains elevated.
2) There is a risk of flash floods in some places during this period, especially for Jammu Region.People should avoid crossing rivers or heading to low lying areas.
Forecast Insights : Kashmir Weatherman
